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Prediction for CME (2021-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-14T17:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18544/-1
CME Note: This CME event is associated with a filament eruption from center of the Earth-facing disk as seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2021-12-14T11:14Z. The filament is estimated to be about 30 degrees wide; centered near N27W08. UPDATE (2021-12-24T18:15Z): Field component rotation indicating a potential flux rope buried in the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival signature, from 2021-12-19T18:28Z to 2021-12-19T20:35Z, may possibly be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2021-12-14T17:38Z and 2021-12-15T05:00Z. The overall solar wind signatures for density, speed, and temperature are dominated by the 2021-12-19 high speed stream arrival, with only small changes that might support the field signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-19T18:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-18T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18543/1
Model Inputs:
2021-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=8.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=305.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2021-12-15T00:13Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-12-18T18:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211215_001300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 94.38 hour(s)
Difference: 24.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2021-12-15T20:05Z

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